AAA projects 42.3 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home this Memorial Day weekend*, a 7% increase from 2022. This year, 2.7 million more people will travel for the unofficial start of summer compared to last year. This is expected to be the third-busiest Memorial Day weekend since 2000, when AAA started tracking holiday travel.
“The world has reopened and there is a lot of pent-up demand for travel,” said Bevi Powell, senior vice president, AAA East Central. “From unique destinations like Egypt to the always popular beach trips and cruises, more Americans are planning those special vacations this summer with family and friends.”
Nearly 3.4 million travelers are expected to fly to their destinations this Memorial Day, an increase of 11% from last year. Air travel over the holiday weekend is projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels, with 170,000 more passengers – or 5.4% more – than in 2019. Despite high ticket prices, demand for flights is skyrocketing. This Memorial Day weekend could be the busiest at airports since 2005.
Memorial Day road trips are up 6% from last year. More than 37 million Americans will drive to their destinations, an increase of more than 2 million. Gas prices are lower this holiday compared to last year, when the national average was more than $4 a gallon. Despite the lower prices at the pump, car travel this holiday will be shy of pre-pandemic numbers by about 500,000 travelers.
More people this holiday are taking other modes of transportation, such as buses and trains. These travelers are expected to total 1.85 million, an increase of 20.6% from 2022.
Mid-Atlantic Region Memorial Day Forecast Highlights:
*Region includes New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania.
| Method of Travel | Total Travelers | Increase from 2022 |
| Automobile | 4.5 million | 6.0% |
| Air travel | 342,000 | 8.9% |
| Other (bus, train, ship, etc.) | 124,000 | 8.7% |
| Region Total | 4.9 million | 6.2% |
Best/Worst Times to Travel and Peak Congestion by Metro
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Friday, May 26 to be the busiest day on the roads during the long Memorial Day weekend. The best times to travel by car are in the morning or evening after 6 p.m. The lightest traffic days will be Saturday and Sunday. Major metro areas like Boston, New York, Seattle and Tampa will likely see travel times double compared to normal.
Top Destinations
AAA booking data for the Memorial Day weekend shows tourist hotspots like Orlando, New York City and Las Vegas are top domestic destinations. Cruise port cities in Florida and Alaska, as well as Seattle, are high on the list with a 50% increase in domestic cruise bookings compared to last year. Other popular U.S. cities this Memorial Day include Denver, Boston, Anaheim and Canton, Ohio – home of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Travelers are paying more for Memorial Day trips this year, in large part due to the rising cost of airline tickets. AAA booking data shows a 40% increase in airfare to this year’s top destinations. But that’s not stopping travelers from booking flights abroad. International travel is surging with bookings 250% higher this holiday weekend compared to 2022. European cities are the most popular, including Rome, Paris, Dublin, London, Barcelona and Athens. International car rentals are up more than 80% from 2022. AAA reports strong sales for International Driving Permits this year, almost double what they were last year. The passport courier service RushMyPassport is also seeing an unprecedented number of applications for expedited passport and visa services this year.
Be Road-Ready
For the 37.1 million Americans hitting the road, it’s always advisable to get vehicles road-trip ready with a full-vehicle inspection. AAA expects to respond to more than 480,000 calls for help over the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Have key vehicle components checked like the battery, fuel system, tires, brakes and fluid levels and make sure to have a fully stocked vehicle-emergency kit.
Holiday Forecast Methodology
Travel Forecast
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic-travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing-market indicators and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel and hotel stays. AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.
Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts more than 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends and forecast U.S. travel behavior — all after the trips have been taken.
The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday-travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of April 17, 2023.
*Memorial Day Holiday Travel Period
For purposes of this forecast, the Memorial Day holiday travel period is defined as the five-day period from Thursday, May 25 to Monday, May 29. The five-day holiday length is consistent with previous holiday periods.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.
About DKSA
DK SHIFFLET boasts the industry’s most complete database on U.S. resident travel in the U.S. and worldwide. Data is collected monthly from a U.S. representative sample, adding more than 60,000 traveling households annually and is used daily by leading travel organizations and their strategic planning groups. DK SHIFFLET is an MMGY Global company.
About INRIX
Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic-signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last-mile delivery or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.
AAA East Central is a not-for-profit association with 69 local offices in Kentucky, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia serving 2.7 million members. News releases are available at news.eastcentral.aaa.com. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.
