AAA projects 79.9 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday travel period*. For the first time, AAA’s forecast includes the Tuesday before and the Monday after Thanksgiving Day to capture the flow of holiday travelers better. This year’s projection of nearly 80 million travelers is an increase of 1.7 million people compared to last year and 2 million more than in 2019.
“The holiday season will reflect the robust trends that we have enjoyed throughout the year,” said Bevi Powell, senior vice president, AAA East Central. “Our forecast indicates more Americans are looking for new adventures and memorable vacations as a way to reconnect with family and friends.”
Mid-Atlantic Region Thanksgiving Forecast (Tuesday, Nov. 26 to Monday, Dec. 2.)
*Region includes New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania
| Method of Travel | Total Travelers | % Change from 2023 |
| Automobile | 8.7 million | 2.3% |
| Air Travel | 828,000 | 2.6% |
| Other (bus, train, ship, etc.) | 183,000 | 5.3% |
| Region Total | 9.7 million | 2.4% |
Thanksgiving Travelers By Mode
By Car: AAA projects a record 71.7 million people will travel by car over Thanksgiving – an additional 1.3 million travelers on the road compared to last year. This year’s number also surpasses pre-pandemic numbers when 70.6 million people drove to their Thanksgiving destinations in 2019.
Gas prices are lower this Thanksgiving season compared to 2023. The national average last Thanksgiving Day was $3.26. Regionally, drivers east of the Rockies will find gas between $2.25 to $2.50 a gallon in more than a dozen states.
AAA car rental partner Hertz says Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, and Phoenix are the cities displaying the highest rental demand for the Thanksgiving holiday. The busiest car pick-up day is expected to be the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and the busiest rental return days will be the Monday and Tuesday after the holiday.
By Air: Thanksgiving air travel is also expected to set a record. AAA projects 5.84 million people will fly domestically this holiday. That’s an increase of 2% compared to last year and a nearly 11% increase over 2019. AAA booking data shows air travelers are paying 3% more for domestic Thanksgiving flights this year. International flight bookings are up 23% compared to last Thanksgiving, in part because the cost to fly internationally is down 5%.
By Other Modes: Nearly 2.3 million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains. This category is seeing an increase of almost 9% compared to last year and an 18% jump over 2019, in large part due to the popularity of cruising. The demand for cruises has been red-hot post-pandemic. Domestic and international cruise bookings are up 20% compared to last Thanksgiving.
Best/Worst Times to Drive
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, says the worst times to travel by car over Thanksgiving are Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. The best time to hit the road is Thanksgiving Day itself when interstates and highways are typically clear. Drivers returning home on Sunday should leave early in the morning, and those coming back on Monday should expect a mix of travelers and work commuters on the road.
“With a record number of travelers expected to be on the road, drivers should follow traffic apps and local news alerts to avoid major delays,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “This is especially important for drivers in metropolitan areas like Boston, New York, LA, Seattle, and Washington, DC, where traffic is expected to be more than double what it typically is on a normal day.”
| Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car | ||
| Date | Worst Travel Time | Best Travel Time |
| Mon, Nov 25 | 1:00 PM – 5:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
| Tue, Nov 26 | 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM | Before 10:00 AM |
| Wed, Nov 27 | 1:00 PM – 5:00 PM | Before 10:00 AM |
| Thu, Nov 28(Thanksgiving Day) | Minimal Traffic Impact Expected | |
| Fri, Nov 29 | 7:00 AM – 10:00 AM | After 1:00 PM |
| Sat, Nov 30 | 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM | Before 1:00 PM |
| Sun, Dec 1 | 12:00 PM – 6:00 PM | Before 1:00 PM |
| Mon, Dec 2 | 9:00 AM – 6:00 PM | Before 8 AM / After 7 PM |
AAA’s Top Thanksgiving Destinations
The common theme among the top 10 domestic destinations is “warm weather.” Four Florida cities are on the list because of their beaches, theme parks, and cruise ports. Other destinations include New York, California, Hawaii, and Las Vegas. Internationally, Europe and the Caribbean dominate the list thanks to their beach resorts, tourist attractions, and river cruises. The top Thanksgiving destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data from Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2.
| DOMESTIC | INTERNATIONAL/CARIBBEAN |
| Orlando, FL | Budapest, Hungary |
| Miami, FL | Mexicali, Mexico |
| Fort Lauderdale, FL | San Juan, Puerto Rico |
| New York, NY | Cancun, Mexico |
| Anaheim/Los Angeles, CA | Punta Cana, Dominican Republic |
| Tampa, FL | Rome, Italy |
| Honolulu, HI | Amsterdam, Netherlands |
| San Francisco, CA | Paris, France |
| Las Vegas, NV | Barcelona, Spain |
| Atlanta, GA | Munich, Germany |
Forecast Methodology
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.
Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.
The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of October 7, 2024.
Because AAA forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.
*Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Period
For this forecast, the Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the seven-day period from Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2. This is the first year the Thanksgiving forecast is a longer timeframe to include the Tuesday before the holiday and the Monday after. Historically, AAA only looked at Wednesday through Sunday.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses, and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.
About DKSA
DK SHIFFLET boasts the industry’s most complete database on U.S. resident travel both in the U.S. and worldwide. Data is collected monthly from a U.S. representative sample, adding over 60,000 traveling households annually, and is used daily by leading travel organizations and their strategic planning groups. DK SHIFFLET is an MMGY Global company.
About INRIX
Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.
AAA East Central is a not-for-profit association with 69 local offices in Kentucky, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia serving 2.7 million members. News releases are available at news.eastcentral.aaa.com. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.
