AAA: Year-End Holiday Travel Expected to Set New Record

AAA projects 122.4 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home over the 13-day year-end holiday period beginning December 20 and ending January 1. This year’s forecast is a 2.2% increase over 2024, surpassing last year’s record of 119.7 million travelers.

“As we continue to set new travel records, it’s clear that most Americans love to travel and make it a priority, especially when making year-end travel plans,” said Jim Garrity, director of public affairs, AAA East Central. “AAA’s projections show that travelers will spend the holidays in a variety of ways, including family road trips, cruises, tropical vacations, and more.”

Mid-Atlantic Region Year End Forecast Highlights:
*Region includes New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania.

Year-End Travelers by Mode of Transportation

By Car: AAA projects 109.5 million Americans will travel by car for their year-end trips, an increase of 2% compared to last year. Driving is the overwhelming favorite among all modes of transportation because of its convenience and low cost. This year, 89% of holiday travelers will take road trips. Gas prices are lower compared to last holiday season when the national average was $3.04 to end 2024. For the first time in 4 years, the national average dropped below $3 a gallon this month.

With a record number of car travelers, AAA urges drivers to prioritize safety. December is National Impaired Driving Prevention Month which serves as a timely reminder to make safe choices and stay vigilant. AAA and MADD encourage holiday travelers to plan safe rides home this holiday season during one of the most dangerous times of year on the road.

During 2024’s year-end holiday period, AAA responded to more than 860,000 emergency roadside assistance calls to help stranded drivers with issues like dead batteries, flat tires, and empty fuel tanks. When AAA responds to those roadside emergencies, safety is a top priority. safe. Slow Down, Move Over means when there is a stopped vehicles on the side of the road, motorists should move over a lane if safe to do so, and reduce speed. That gives tow truck technicians, law enforcement officials, and other individuals room to complete their work safely.

For travelers who are renting cars, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Saturday, December 20 is expected to be the busiest pick-up day. The top 5 markets with the highest demand are Orlando, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Miami, and Phoenix. Small SUVs make up the most popular car rental class over the year-end holidays. According to AAA booking data, domestic car rentals are 1% more expensive this holiday season compared to last year.

By Air: AAA projects a record 8.03 million travelers taking domestic flights this holiday season, a 2.3% increase compared to last year. This will be the first time on record that the number of domestic air travelers over the year-end holiday period exceeds 8 million.

According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their holiday trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is 7% more expensive this year, averaging nearly $900 a ticket. The days leading up to Christmas Day are the most expensive, while flying on the holiday itself is cheaper. New Year’s flights are also pricey with many people returning home on New Year’s Day or even squeezing one extra weekend out of the holiday season and coming back on Sunday, January 4.

By Other Modes: Travel by other modes is expected to go up by 9% with 4.9 million people traveling by bus, train, or cruise. This category has seen a 25% increase since 2019, mainly due to the record-setting demand for cruises post-pandemic.

AAA’s Year-End Top Destinations

The top holiday destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data for the year-end travel period. Warm destinations dominate the domestic side with travelers heading to Florida, Southern California, and Hawaii. Caribbean destinations and resort towns in Mexico are also popular to celebrate the year-end holidays and ring in 2026.

Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Christmas week to be busier on the roads than New Year’s week, but both weeks will see days of increased traffic. Interstates will be extra congested the weekend before Christmas, as travelers hit the road on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the holiday. Friday, December 26 is also expected to be busy as travelers make moves post-Christmas Day. Because the year-end holiday travel period spans a longer time frame, travelers have more options for departures and returns. The holidays themselves – Christmas and New Year’s Day – are typically the lightest traffic-wise but remember crashes or severe weather could create unexpected delays.

SOURCE: INRIX

Holiday Travel Forecast Methodology

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken. 

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was finalized the week of November 17, 2025.

Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

INRIX Methodology

INRIX blends statistically grounded models with real-world road behavior to forecast travel conditions on the most heavily traveled routes across the U.S. during peak holiday periods. INRIX’s holiday traffic forecast combines pre-selected high-impact travel routes, rich multi-source traffic data, and a statistically robust linear regression model to generate detailed, time-specific travel delay predictions. INRIX’s data sources include a wide array of vehicle-based and infrastructure-based inputs. These include connected vehicle GPS data, mobile apps and navigation services, roadside sensors and cameras, and commercial fleet telematics. With expansive coverage, high temporal resolution, and historical context, this forecasting process provides essential insights for travelers, media, and agencies alike.

Year-End Holiday Travel Period

AAA’s year-end holiday travel period always includes two weekends. This year, that travel window is defined as the thirteen-day period from Saturday, December 20 to Thursday, January 1.

About S&P Global Market Intelligence

At S&P Global Market Intelligence, we understand the importance of accurate, deep and insightful information. Our team of experts delivers unrivaled insights and leading data and technology solutions, partnering with customers to expand their perspective, operate with confidence, and make decisions with conviction. S&P Global Market Intelligence is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world’s leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit spglobal.com/marketintelligence.

About MMGY

MMGY Global is the world’s leading integrated marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality, and lifestyle industries. With operating brands around the world, the award-winning organization maintains a global communications practice in all marketing channels, serving many of the world’s premier travel and tourism brands. As a company dedicated to the travel industry, MMGY Global strives to create a connected, inclusive, and peaceful world by promoting travel as a cultural bridge of understanding. For more information, visit www.mmgyglobal.com.

About INRIX   

Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com. 

AAA East Central is a not-for-profit association with 69 local offices in Kentucky, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia serving 2.7 million members. Follow us on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. AAA East Central provides services to its members including Automotive, Insurance, Discounts & Rewards, Financial, and Travel. Find out more about AAA Membership and current savings here.

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